Read the exact question
Small wording differences can change what resolves Yes or No. Start with the full market rules and named resolution source.
EVENT CONTRACTS FIELD GUIDE · 2026
Prediction Markets Guide
The Prediction Markets Guide (SML-PREDICTION-001, $19 one-time) is a SCRIPTMASTERLABS field guide to event contracts, implied probability, liquidity, spread, resolution criteria and the risks hidden behind a headline price. Its first rule: a 70-cent contract may be read as a market-implied probability, but it is not a 70% guarantee — liquidity, fees, participants and rules shape interpretation.
A practical prediction markets guide to event contracts, implied probability, liquidity, spread, resolution criteria and the risks hidden behind a headline price.
SML-PREDICTION-001$19 ONE TIMEINSTANT PDF DELIVERY
THE OUTCOME
How should you read event-market prices?
Read event-market prices as tradable claims with rules, liquidity and resolution risk — not as perfect forecasts.
Use this guide to: Review event-contract wording, implied probability, liquidity and resolution risk.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
What will you learn?
- How contract prices relate to implied probability
- Why spread, depth and fees affect the price you can actually trade
- How resolution wording, sources and edge cases create risk
- A pre-trade checklist for event contracts and prediction markets
INSIDE THE GUIDE
Which practical concepts does the guide cover?
Price is not certainty
A quoted price can be interpreted as an implied probability only within the market's structure and frictions.
Measure liquidity
Displayed price is not enough. Review spread, available size, fees and the exit path.
Plan for resolution
Ambiguity, delays, corrections and extraordinary events can matter as much as the underlying forecast.
PRIMARY SOURCES
What sources can buyers inspect?
The PDF includes source notes. These public references provide the governing background and current official context.
CFTC event contracts →CFTC customer education →FAQ
What should you know before you buy?
Is a 70-cent contract a 70% guarantee?
No. It may be read as a market-implied probability, but liquidity, fees, participants and rules affect interpretation.
What is resolution risk?
It is the risk that wording, sources, timing or edge cases produce an outcome different from a trader's intuitive reading.
Is this legal or trading advice?
No. Laws and platform availability vary; readers must review current rules and their own jurisdiction.
How do you get the PDF?
One-time purchase. Stripe Checkout redirects to the purchased PDF after successful payment.
Buy Prediction Markets Guide — $19Educational information only. No personalized investment, legal, tax, regulatory, cybersecurity or business advice. No ranking, citation, performance or financial outcome is guaranteed.
Prediction markets explained: what is included?
4 pages in a fixed-layout PDF: Event contracts, market odds, liquidity and resolution risk. This is a compact field guide with review checks and source notes.